The OK corral - analysing the fight

In the last post I looked at the 'Geography' of the shootout, in this one I'm going to look at who was present and where they were during the critical moments as well as how they performed.  This is much less cut and dried than the location details and even Wyatt Earp himself seems to have misidentified locations in his later life.  However, the majority of sources and witness statements are clear that the shooting started in the space between Fly's Lodging house and the Harwood house.

The Earp party comes into play walking along Fremont Street at the corner of the Union Meat Market (AKA Bauer's) Sheriff Behan attempts to stop them claiming to have disarmed the Cowboys.  The Earps ignore him and continue towards Fly's.  While this is happening the Cowboys are lounging along the wall of the Harwood house and out into the vacant lot.  At least one and possibly two have horses with holstered Winchester rifles (Frank McLaury for certain and possibly Billy Clanton) as they have just ridden into town having been alerted to trouble between the Earps, Ike Clanton and Billy Claiborne earlier in the day.  Cowboy Wes Fuller is stood by the corner of Fly's Photographic Studio deeper into the lot and Billy Claiborne is between Wes and Ike.

Rough positions of the participants and routes taken by those who fled the fight

My take on the positions is that as the Earps came around the corner of Fly's the Cowboys started moving with Ike Clanton, Frank McLaury, Tom McLaury and Billy Clanton pivoting forward in a rough line.  After a few words along the lines "we have come to disarm you" or possibly "You sons of bitches have been looking for a fight, now you can have one" from the Earps two shots rang out almost at the same time.  Cowboy supporters claim that the Earps fired those shots without any provocation, while Earp supporters took the view that Billy Clanton went for his gun and fired at Wyatt, with Wyatt drawing and shooting at Frank.  Wyatt later said that he knew Frank to be good with a gun and a dangerous man which is why he shot at him rather than Billy.  At this point the firing "became general" and the vacant lot must have become thick with gun smoke (remember these guys are all using black powder revolvers).  

In the midst of this Ike Clanton runs towards Wyatt telling him he is unarmed and doesn't want this fight.  He is told "get to fighting or get away".  He chooses the latter option and flees past the Earp's  line through Fly's lodging house front door and out of the back door and away towards the OK corral.  Wes Fuller is also getting clear of the shooting at this point.  Billy Claiborne also decided that discretion was the better part of valour running into the lodging house through the back door to hide.  While all of this is going on Sheriff Behan is also moving through the lodging house.  It must have been getting crowded in there!

Who shot who isn't entirely clear as 30 -40 shots were fired in around 30 seconds so there was a lot of lead flying.  Frank Mclaury at some point crosses the Earp's firing line and reaches Fremont Street.   He  tries to draw the Winchester from the saddle holster but without success.  His horse bolts and he is shot dead on the far side of Fremont somewhere opposite the Harwood house.  Virgil and Morgan Earp have sustained one gunshot wound each and Doc Holliday has been grazed.  Wyatt has had very near misses but is unwounded.  On the Cowboy side Frank McLaury had been hit twice and killed, Tom McLaury is mortally wounded from a shotgun blast and Billy Clanton is also dying from three gunshot wounds.

We know that the Earp party all had a revolver and Doc also had a short barrelled shotgun (A Coach or Messenger's gun).  Assuming that their revolvers only had five rounds each loaded (a common safety technique before reliable safety catches) that gives the Earps twenty pistol rounds and two in the shotgun.  We don't know if all of those pistol rounds were fired off though, and assuming both shotgun barrels were fired (as Doc tossed it aside to draw his pistol) but if they were then twenty two rounds fired at close range generated six or maybe seven wounds (assuming the shotgun wound to Tom McLaury was from both barrels).  That is an overall hit rate of  just under 32%.

The cowboys had inflicted three wounds but it is not fully clear how many rounds they fired.  We know Billy Clanton's gun was empty after the fight and that Frank McLaury's still held two rounds.  Assuming each was loaded with only five rounds for safety from eight shots they inflicted three wounds are hit rate of 37.5%.  However there was, and still is, uncertainty as to whether Tom McLaury was armed or not.  He had been disarmed earlier in the day but several witnesses claimed they saw a bulge in his pocket which could have been a pistol, alternatively it is known that he had just collected $3,300 and receipts for stolen cattle from Bauer's Butchers which may have been what was seen.  No pistol was found on or near his body but Wyatt was convinced Wes Fuller removed it. If he was armed then lets add another 5 rounds to the mix.  That makes the hit rate three from thirteen or 23%.

No matter how the numbers fall out the chance of hitting an opponent in a very short range encounter in a location with little room to manoeuvre is much lower than the game rules would create if all participants have a pistol rating which doesn't create any negative modifiers.  In the old west rules the range is 1 - 10 with ratings below 7 creating a minus 10% chance of hitting per level below 7 and a plus 10% chance of hitting for each level above 7.

So assuming that everyone is on a seven.  This fight starts with pistols 'holstered' actually they were in pockets or waistbands but the effect is the same.  They were drawn and 'snap fired' at short range.  The basic chance of a hit at short rang shooting at a man walking or carrying out any action is a whopping 75%, snap firing at short range doesn't change this although the shooter walking or carrying out any action does reduce the chance to 70%.   I'd argue that once a couple of shots were fired the smoke would obscure things enough to count as soft cover reducing the hit chance to 20%.  So it's the initial two shots that have a worrying high chance of hitting although Wyatt did hit Frank with his first shot while Billy missed.  Maybe I should deduct another 15% for shooting at an appearing target for the first round of shooting.  Alternatively maybe I should drop the pistol rating of Virgil and Morgan on the Earp side and Tom and Billy on the Cowboy side.  Time for some play tests.

Next up I have to build the shootout site.  I have a Fly's Lodging House and Photography Studio and a Harwood House on order from Empires at War and can proxy the other buildings for now.  I have already marked out a foam sheet with the actual scale building foot prints, hopefully the MDF kits will be close to those dimensions.  More to come on this test once the models arrive along with details of the weaponry.